Shiba Inu's price outlook of better outcomes has been neutralized by the slow drift lower from June 29, raising the odds that the ongoing development of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern level may fail. However, the emergence of an oversold condition on the 6-hour RSI does create possible bullish scenarios, renewing the spirit of the SHIB price bottoming pattern.
In a period void of FOMO, Shiba Inu's price has struggled to move beyond brief moments of price strength and into a sustainable SHIB price rally that would ultimately erase the 85% decline that materialized over nine days in May.
The emergence of the inverse head-and-shoulders over the last 52 trading days, after numerous false breakouts from minor bases, has provoked a renewed interest in SHIB price due to the increased clarity of the pattern formation and the substantial projected measured move of over 80%.
However, the bearish tilt of the broader crypto market has been undermining the completion of the right shoulder and exposed Shiba Inu's price to a breakout of the June lows, thereby voiding the opportunity.
The announcement on July 13 of an oversold condition on the 6-hour RSI chart is the first concrete sign that the drift lower may be nearing an end. The oversold condition did trigger a minor rebound in SHIB price, but the weight of the cryptocurrency complex has left Shiba Inu's price vulnerable to test the oversold low. Of course, the oversold condition could still arrest the weakness and drive the SHIB price permanently higher, offering one bullish scenario for the rookie cryptocurrency and a new stage in the completion of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
Alternatively, Shiba Inu price could undercut the July 13 low of $0.00000669 level, but the 6-hour RSI does not print a new low, creating a bullish momentum divergence that could provide the basis for a rebound towards the sturdy resistance level defined by the 200 six-hour simple moving average at $0.00000785 level, and ideally to the neckline, currently at $0.00000917.
It is important to note that the last time the 6-hour RSI was this oversold, Shiba Inu's price launched an 80% price rally in mid-June. Moreover, the rebound did begin slowly, like now, before taking on an impulsive character.
The critical resistance level is the 200 six-hour SMA in each scenario, which aligns with the 50-day SMA. A daily close above the price of $0.00000785 would confirm a final low for the right shoulder and a continuation of the price rally to the neckline.
Fundamental to the enduring bullish outlook is Shiba Inu's price holding the May 19 low of $0.00000607 level on a daily closing basis. A failure at that level introduces a new SHIB price projection and proposes more one-off price jumps moving forward. An ideal scenario for swing traders but not for investors targeting sustainable advances with triple-digit results.
For now, the bullish SHIB price forecast remains active as the oversold condition on the 6-hour chart does marginally revitalize the spirit of the bottoming pattern. Nevertheless, the constant grind lower does reveal a lack of commitment and emotion fundamental to overcoming broader cryptocurrency weakness, putting Shiba Inu's price at risk of shattering the May 19 low and abandoning another failed pattern. Hence, the altcoin may need a miracle to avoid a bearish outcome.
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