XRP price remains locked in a range between the psychologically important $1.00 level and the neckline of a multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders pattern at a price of $0.76. However, a lack of technical analysis clues leaves frothy forecasts on the sideline until directional confirmation can be gleaned from the charts.
XRP has displayed similar passiveness and lack of direction as most altcoins. Ripple price was not inspired by the 30% rally in Bitcoin BTC price, instead favoring to be range-bound between two intimidating support levels, the neckline of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern level at $0.76 and $1.00.
The range has not been accompanied by any signs of accumulation or distribution, price raising the probability that XRP may remain locked in the governing price range for the foreseeable future.
With XRP at an inflection point, it is imperative to consider both sides of the trade. On the long side, the Ripple price is clear of any obstacles until $1.00, creating a 20% gain for investors from the current price. In addition, a daily close above the price of $1.00 would introduce new bullish opportunities and targets, including a rally to the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May correction at a price of $1.14 with the declining 50-day simple moving average at $1.16, yielding a gain of 37% from the price at the time of writing.
Ripple XRP investors should use pullbacks to the $0.76 support level to increase position sizes with an eye on maximizing portfolio price gains. It provides a clear risk level if the trade goes against them.
A bearish view of XRP price is complemented by a minor head-and-shoulders pattern level with the neckline close to $0.76, bolstering the inflection point’s importance.
If the neckline and $0.76 break on a daily trade closing basis, Ripple investors can then consider bearish outcomes for XRP price. However, it is critical to note that standing in front of a test of the May 23 low at a price of $0.65 is the union of the anchored volume-weighted average price (anchored VWAP) at a price of $0.74 and the 200-day SMA at $0.72.
Nevertheless, the downside risk for Ripple XRP price appears limited to 20% from the current price. Not a highly persuasive argument for loading the portfolio with short positions.
Advocating for a neutral view for Ripple XRP price and for investors to refrain from building sizeable short positions is the whale transaction count, which tracks transfers of $100,000. In the past, jumps in the Ripple XRP on-chain metric have matched important tops as large investors were liquidating their positions.
On 30-day trading smoothed basis, the Santiment whale transaction count just tested the early March lows, suggesting that whale-driven selling pressure has been exhausted. If that is the case, the XRP price downside should be limited to $0.76, or at most $0.72.
Ripple, unlike other altcoins, shows selling pressure is exhausted within the whale investor category. Moreover, it is furnished with a stubborn range of support level that should prove instrumental in sustaining Ripple XRP price if the cryptocurrency complex devolves into another collective sell-off. Hence, making headline-grabbing bearish predictions is unwarranted at this point.
Lastly, the importance of the SEC case against Ripple XRP should not be dismissed in consideration of XRP price projections. Until there is a settlement, as most spectators anticipate, the Ripple will not go public and will not be available for trading on many major cryptocurrency exchanges. Both things are price negative while the case remains live.
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