XRP price witnessed a massive sell-off as Bitcoin BTC price retested the May 19 sell-off. After setting up a bottom on June 22, Ripple XRP looks to rally to a crucial resistance level.

XRP price crashed roughly 40% breaking through the May 23 swing low at a price of $0.703. This massive sell-off formed a bottom at a price of $0.509 on June 22 and has pushed Ripple up by 17% so far. This uptrend is likely to continue to a price of $0.784, nearly a 30% gain from the current position, $0.593.

The immediate resistance barrier at a price of $0.643 will be the first significant blockade that has to be overcome for a persistent rally. Breaching this level will propel Ripple XRP price to its intended target at $0.784.

Supporting this bullish thesis is the increase in daily active addresses from 9,355 to 17,743 from June 19 to June 22. This 90% uptick represents that investors interacting with the Ripple blockchain increased, indicating a potential “buy the dip” mentality.

Further adding a tailwind to the potential upswing is the 365-day Market Value to Realized Value model, which has dipped below the zero-level after 138 days. This fundamental index is used to measure the average profit/loss of investors that purchased Ripple XRP in the past year.

Currently, the 365-day MVRV is at -13.54%, suggesting that the short-term traders are selling, allowing the long-term holders to accumulate. Since XRP price is moving to strong hands, this transfer is an optimistic sign.

While the two on-chain metrics described above point to an XRP bullish outlook, failing to slice through the resistance level at a price of $0.643 will indicate weak bulls and might trigger a bearish outlook.

Adding credence to a potential bearish outlook is large transactions worth $100,000 or more, which rose from 722 to 1,615 between June 20 to June 22. 

This 123% increase suggests that whales might be looking to reallocate their funds, which is a grim outlook for the resurgence of XRP price.

Therefore, a rejection at $0.643, followed by a breakdown of the recent swing low at a price of $0.509, will invalidate the bullish thesis. In such a case, the XRP price is likely to slide 6% to the immediate support level at $0.475.

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