Ethereum price failed to break the top of the post-crash range in this recent attempt up, putting longs at risk of retracement level. How deep those will be will likely depend on further ETH failures to either recapture highs or break lows. The Fibonacci retracement level can assist with identifying those key levels.
ETHUSDT pair corrected sharply lower intraday, meeting key support level at 38.20% of 1708/2011. Should this get cleared, the next base lays at 50% and 61.80%, at prices of 2234 and 2099 – respectively.
Support at any of the above support levels should ease the minor downside bias for a surge back above the local high of 2911. An ideal hold of bears could allow prices to accelerate into wave 3, likely resetting the ETH bull run.
This move should mark the infancy stages of cycle wave 3, which sees double digits in the ETH holding long term.
However, when looking at the medium-term, we could have either ended wave 3 at the local crash low at 1708. This sees an alternative to the above main scenario of minor wave 3 after completing a simple zigzag in wave 4: a double zigzag in wave 4.
The Resistance level at the 3047 or 3571 should pose a major challenge for bulls and the rigidity of the ETH bull run as it would point to neutral-to-bearish flows into ETH.
This could end up validating a base resistance level, targeting wave (X) of IV, and driving prices near the previous high at 4384 while remaining relevant.
However, with the 61.80% rejecting price bulls, probabilities favor the double rather than the simple zigzag as the 3047 makes a firm cluster with the base channel connecting primary waves 1,2
To pave the way to ETH bulls, prices could decelerate to wave 4, offering double-four support, an often seen relation between higher and lower-degree price corrections.
Only then would ETH prices have a solid low registered to revisit a bullish scenario. Until then, all eyes should remain locked on the depth of the current price correction.
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